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Post by pjw

pjw @pjw@social.coop
Israel Elections Livetooting - INITIAL RESULTS

Averaging the exit polls, here are the initial results (You need 61 to form a government):

Netanyahu Bloc:

Likud/Netanyahu - 25
Shas - 7
UTJ - 6
Jewish Power/Otzma - 6
Religious Zionists - 6

TOTAL = 50

Anti-Netanyahu Bloc:

Yashar/Eistenkot - 22
Together/Beyahad - 13
The Democrats - 9

Lieberman/Israel Beteinu - 8

TOTAL = 52

WILD CARDS:

Ra'am/United Arab List - 7
Joint Arab List - 10

The new parties - Reservists, Haredi Public, and Ofer Winter's Amcha right wing party - none passed the threshold.

#IsraelElections

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pjw @pjw@social.coop
Israel Elections Livetooting - INITIAL RESULTS

What this means:
Without breaking any promises, no coalition can be formed without Arab support - and in fact, probably support from *both Arab parties*.

If the Eisenkot bloc ditches Lieberman, they could form a coalition with the Arabs. That would be my preference; its unlikely, but possible.

Or

We go to new elections

Or

Eisenkot or someone else breaks their promise and forms a government with Netanyahu. This would be political suicide *unless*, as is likely, a return to war with Iran seems to necessitate a 'unity' government (precisely why this result makes a return to war with Netanyahu still temporarily in charge *much more likely*)

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